Odds 2017 NBA Championship: Which Teams Had the Best Chance to Win?
As I look back at the 2017 NBA Championship odds, I can't help but feel that was one of the most unpredictable seasons in recent memory. Having followed basketball analytics for over a decade, I've learned that championship odds don't just reflect team quality—they capture narratives, momentum, and those intangible factors that statistics often miss. The Golden State Warriors entered the season as overwhelming favorites, and honestly, who could blame the oddsmakers? After adding Kevin Durant to a roster that had just won 73 games, they looked like basketball's inevitable force.
I remember analyzing the preseason odds and thinking the Cleveland Cavaliers at +200 represented genuine value. Having witnessed LeBron James' playoff dominance firsthand, I believed then—and still do—that any team with James in his prime automatically deserves better than 2-to-1 odds against anyone. The Cavaliers' championship core remained intact, and their historic comeback from 3-1 down in the 2016 Finals gave them psychological armor that doesn't appear in spreadsheets. What fascinated me about that season was how the odds fluctuated dramatically through the regular season, with teams like the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets occasionally shortening as they put together impressive winning streaks.
The Warriors' journey to their championship wasn't as smooth as many anticipated, and I recall several moments when their odds actually drifted slightly. When Kevin Durant missed 19 games with a knee injury in March, some doubt crept into the market, though anyone who watched them play knew their offensive system could withstand temporary absences. What made Golden State special wasn't just their talent—it was their adaptability. I've rarely seen a team that could switch between beautiful ball movement and isolation brilliance so seamlessly. Their playoff run ultimately justified the preseason confidence, but the path contained more tension than the odds suggested.
Looking beyond the obvious favorites, the most intriguing value plays emerged among the second-tier contenders. The Boston Celtics at +2000 caught my attention after they added Al Horford, providing the defensive structure and offensive versatility that Brad Stevens' system needed. Isaiah Thomas's historic offensive season made them dangerous, though I always doubted their rebounding could hold up against elite teams. The Toronto Raptors at +4000 represented what I considered genuine longshot value—they returned essentially the same roster that had reached the Eastern Conference Finals, yet the market severely undervalued their continuity and regular season consistency.
What many analysts underestimated was how the Western Conference's depth would impact the championship picture. The Houston Rockets under Mike D'Antoni transformed into an offensive juggernaut, with James Harden's shift to point guard creating matchup nightmares across the league. Their +2500 odds in preseason seemed disrespectful to an MVP-caliber player surrounded by elite shooting. Similarly, the San Antonio Spurs at +1200 felt like they were being discounted due to age, ignoring their 61-win regular season and Kawhi Leonard's emergence as a legitimate two-way superstar.
The playoffs revealed something I've come to appreciate about championship odds—they're better at identifying contenders than predicting champions. While Golden State ultimately prevailed, the Cavaliers' path through the Eastern Conference demonstrated why preseason models struggle to capture playoff LeBron. His 2017 postseason ranks among the most dominant individual runs I've witnessed, with the Celtics and Raptors simply having no answer for his combination of scoring and playmaking. The Finals themselves delivered the third chapter of basketball's modern rivalry, though the Warriors' superiority had become undeniable by that stage.
Reflecting on that season's odds landscape, I'm struck by how much context matters beyond the numbers. The emotional component of team chemistry, the strategic innovations that emerge during playoff series, the injury luck that inevitably shapes outcomes—these elements resist quantification yet profoundly influence results. My experience analyzing odds has taught me that the most valuable betting opportunities often come from identifying when the market overreacts to regular season developments or underestimates championship pedigree. The 2017 season reinforced that while talent usually prevails, the path to that outcome remains beautifully unpredictable.